Your description of the regulating of CANCON (Canadian Content) is close enough. I've also heard the same thoughts regarding TiVo's expansion in to Canada. Though I don't know how much research they've put into the cost estimates. Their data provider, Tribune Media Services does carry full Canadian listings, for all Cable, Satelite and "other" providers up here. I also know what the monthly costs are (because I've talked to TMS sales people a number of times). They're not insignificant, but quite a bit lower than for the US. I imagine they could cover them with enough Canadian subscribers in short order with little advertising expenditure. Pretty much just letting Canadians know that TiVo is available - because a large number of us already know what they are. A large number of us actually have them.

Tony, the other way Canadians access DirecTV with TiVo is to subscribe with a US address. Right now it's the only way because Direc changed their stream data earlier this year making all hacked cards completely useless. Stand-alone usage requires supplying your own guide data to the TiVo box (way more complicated than Direc setup).
The stand-alone DVR market is wide open in Canada. There is currently not even one company offering such a product. Integrated units (sat or cable) are available from respective operators but they're generaly crap compard to TiVo (using Scientific Atlanta and Echostar boxes). I'm sure Bell, Rogers, et al have no desire to see TiVo in any shape or form up here. They need all the help they can get to keep their own products moving.
Bruno