#277058 - 08/03/2006 21:50
Who thinks TiVo is barking up the wrong tree?
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carpal tunnel
Registered: 12/11/2001
Posts: 7738
Loc: Toronto, CANADA
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TiVo just made a big move to try and increase its subscriber base. They're now including the price of the TiVo unit in the monthly service fee. Quote:
New pricing schemes include a one-year plan at $19.95 per month, a two-year $18.95-per-month plan and a three-year $16.95 plan. All plans include an 80GB Series 2 TiVo box, and discounts are available for customers who pre-pay (i.e., a prepaid three-year plan is $469, vs. $610.20 on the monthly plan).
And at the same time they're apparently dropped the lifetime subscription option (which used to be a sort of "buy the box at its true retail price" upgrade)
Quote:
TiVo has also quietly dropped its $299 lifetime service plan, though current users who signed up for that plan won't be affected.
Does anyone else see this as short-sighted? I have a problem believing their lack of customers came from charging $50-200 for a TiVo box to begin with. I think the whole problem with their paradigm is the subscription fee and the concept of the TiVo core features as a service rather than a product.
If this is truly the end of the lifetime option, they have just guaranteed that I will never be a TiVo user/customer in the future. Their recent moves of supporting Canada and announcing dual-tuner stand-alone devices had me waiting with wallet ready.
TiVo is great. But it isn't $20/month great. $449 for three years is more than would feel right for the box and perpetual guide access.
I think TiVo has just done Microsoft and all other PVR/media center vendors a great favor.
Bruno
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#277059 - 08/03/2006 22:21
Re: Who thinks TiVo is barking up the wrong tree?
[Re: hybrid8]
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carpal tunnel
Registered: 23/09/2000
Posts: 3608
Loc: Minnetonka, MN
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Yep they are fricking nuts. I won't pay 20 dollars a month and I don't want any contract let alone a 3 year one. Maybe the vista mediacenter won't suck and I can move to that.
I wonder how this effects people with no contract that already have a tivo.
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Matt
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#277060 - 08/03/2006 22:25
Re: Who thinks TiVo is barking up the wrong tree?
[Re: hybrid8]
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addict
Registered: 01/03/2002
Posts: 598
Loc: Florida
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After doing some quick math this really isn't a bad deal. Now if you have any plans to get an HDTV in then next 3 years it would beter to wait what the pricing is for the SA HDTiVo.
I have three SA Series One TiVos and paid way more than 469 for each TiVo and three years of service.
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Chad
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#277061 - 09/03/2006 01:33
Re: Who thinks TiVo is barking up the wrong tree?
[Re: hybrid8]
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carpal tunnel
Registered: 05/01/2001
Posts: 4903
Loc: Detroit, MI USA
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I already think their fees are too high.
I love my Tivo, but that is partly due to the fact that I pay 5.99 a month (through DirecTV) for as many Tivos as I can fit into my house. I'm not sure I'd be as enthusiastic about Tivo if I was paying what you SA users pay.
Also, I don't like to finance or "rent" equipment. I like to own it and be able to crack it open.
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Brad B.
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#277062 - 09/03/2006 04:47
Re: Who thinks TiVo is barking up the wrong tree?
[Re: SE_Sport_Driver]
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addict
Registered: 01/03/2002
Posts: 598
Loc: Florida
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I decided to check in MS Money how much I've given to TiVo just for service and the average is $19.84 per month. This number will only go down since I now pay only $13.90 per month due to multi unit discounts.
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Chad
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#277063 - 09/03/2006 15:15
Re: Who thinks TiVo is barking up the wrong tree?
[Re: hybrid8]
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carpal tunnel
Registered: 08/03/2000
Posts: 12318
Loc: Sterling, VA
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I agree, this is the wrong move for them. They're practicing a bit of "truthiness" here. Just because they say the initial price of the box scares away customers, they think people will buy into their new scheme. I know at least five people who would own a Tivo right now, but they were scared off when I told them about the $13/15 a month charge. Am I going to be able to sell them on spending $20 a month? Hell no!
R.I.P. Tivo
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Matt
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#277064 - 09/03/2006 16:57
Re: Who thinks TiVo is barking up the wrong tree?
[Re: Dignan]
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addict
Registered: 01/03/2002
Posts: 598
Loc: Florida
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Quote:
I agree, this is the wrong move for them. They're practicing a bit of "truthiness" here. Just because they say the initial price of the box scares away customers, they think people will buy into their new scheme. I know at least five people who would own a Tivo right now, but they were scared off when I told them about the $13/15 a month charge. Am I going to be able to sell them on spending $20 a month? Hell no!
R.I.P. Tivo
That is why you don't say 20 a month. You just say 469 for the box and three years of service.
P.S. TiVo already tried the other way. It was only 150 for lifetime service and 300+ for the TiVo and not many people came running.
Edited by Attack (09/03/2006 16:59)
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Chad
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#277065 - 09/03/2006 17:15
Re: Who thinks TiVo is barking up the wrong tree?
[Re: Attack]
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carpal tunnel
Registered: 08/03/2000
Posts: 12318
Loc: Sterling, VA
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But you keep paying for that service after those three years, and you keep paying that $20. Quote:
It was only 150 for lifetime service and 300+ for the TiVo and not many people came running.
That's not a very good example, because Tivos haven't cost $300 in a long time. Heck, you can get an 80 hour on their site right now for $70.
What I'm saying is that in my experience, the people I know who were turned off by Tivo weren't scared of the initial investment, they were scared of the monthly fee. These days there are so many bills for monthly services, it's hard to swallow another one.
In the end, it's all psychological anyway. The free box+ $20/month plan works out to about the same thing as buying a 40 hour Tivo, and then paying the $12.95 monthly fee. My argument is that all along the monthly fee is what scares people away.
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Matt
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#277066 - 09/03/2006 17:45
Re: Who thinks TiVo is barking up the wrong tree?
[Re: Dignan]
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addict
Registered: 01/03/2002
Posts: 598
Loc: Florida
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Both methods will scare people away because they don't understand how good a TiVo really is. I know I've shown people the 30 second skip, TiVoWebPlus and they just about ordered a TiVo while at my house. The real problem TiVo has is showing how much better the software they use is than all the other DVRs. I only have two issues: 1) They don't have the HD SA TiVos out yet 2) My current TiVos don't have official softpad recording times.
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Chad
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#277067 - 09/03/2006 18:43
Re: Who thinks TiVo is barking up the wrong tree?
[Re: Attack]
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pooh-bah
Registered: 15/01/2002
Posts: 1866
Loc: Austin
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Is the subscription just to get a guide or to actually record shows, too?
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#277068 - 09/03/2006 18:54
Re: Who thinks TiVo is barking up the wrong tree?
[Re: RobotCaleb]
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carpal tunnel
Registered: 25/12/2000
Posts: 16706
Loc: Raleigh, NC US
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Well, generally, you tell the TiVo to record shows by name, not by time and channel. The guide tells the TiVo when those shows are on. You could set your TiVo to record by time and channel alone, but then you lose lots of what's cool about the TiVo. (In reality, though, I think they restrict what your TiVo can do when you don't have an active subscription, and it may prevent you from using it to record by time and channel like that. I can't remember now.)
Anyway, what I'm getting at is that the guide isn't so much for the user, but for the TiVo itself, so it can see what to record. It also actually includes way more stuff than is shown on the GUI, so you can set it up to record by criteria you wouldn't actually be able to find anyway, like movie directors, or guest stars or whatever.
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Bitt Faulk
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#277069 - 09/03/2006 23:35
Re: Who thinks TiVo is barking up the wrong tree?
[Re: Attack]
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carpal tunnel
Registered: 08/07/1999
Posts: 5543
Loc: Ajijic, Mexico
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Both methods will scare people away because they don't understand how good a TiVo really is.
TiVo is better than any amount of description or explanation could ever convey.
The UI is extremely powerful, and yet so intuitive that a novice could learn to do 80% of everything TiVo can do just by playing with the menus for half an hour. However, no amount of proselytizing on my part will convince anyone that doesn't already know about it.
If TiVo wants to gain market share, they should offer free 30-day trial of both the TiVo box and the service. The percentage of people who bought TiVo after the 30 days would be very high. I don't know anyone who ever tried TiVo and wasn't completely blown away by it after the first week.
tanstaafl.
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"There Ain't No Such Thing As A Free Lunch"
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#277070 - 10/03/2006 00:30
Re: Who thinks TiVo is barking up the wrong tree?
[Re: tanstaafl.]
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carpal tunnel
Registered: 17/12/2000
Posts: 2665
Loc: Manteca, California
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There are some who won't get it, generally the can't set the time on the VCR crowd.
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Glenn
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#277071 - 10/03/2006 02:40
Re: Who thinks TiVo is barking up the wrong tree?
[Re: gbeer]
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carpal tunnel
Registered: 08/03/2000
Posts: 12318
Loc: Sterling, VA
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Quote:
There are some who won't get it, generally the can't set the time on the VCR crowd.
Not true. My mom has embraced Tivo. In fact she might use it to a greater extent than I do, and she's notoriously technophobic. In fact I'd argue that Tivo is even better for those people.
And I was never very good at setting the time on my VCRs myself.
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Matt
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#277072 - 10/03/2006 03:21
Re: Who thinks TiVo is barking up the wrong tree?
[Re: Dignan]
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carpal tunnel
Registered: 12/11/2001
Posts: 7738
Loc: Toronto, CANADA
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People need to know it's EASIER than a VCR. The problem is I've never seen a DVR advertised in that way. And I haven't seen any TiVo commercials other than those from DirecTV - and again, they didn't plainly explain what the device was nor what it would do for you.
Tape-less video recorder. Period.
Bruno
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#277073 - 10/03/2006 03:41
Re: Who thinks TiVo is barking up the wrong tree?
[Re: hybrid8]
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carpal tunnel
Registered: 23/09/2000
Posts: 3608
Loc: Minnetonka, MN
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The only thing I have seen in DVR ads is that you can rewind and play in slow motion football woo hoo.
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Matt
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#277074 - 10/03/2006 04:19
Re: Who thinks TiVo is barking up the wrong tree?
[Re: msaeger]
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addict
Registered: 01/03/2002
Posts: 598
Loc: Florida
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I saw one TiVo ad on CBS. The ad went something like: Take the Network Execs out of your TV viewing (In tall building the Network Exec gets thrown out the window). What what you want when you want.
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Chad
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#277075 - 10/03/2006 12:42
Re: Who thinks TiVo is barking up the wrong tree?
[Re: Attack]
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carpal tunnel
Registered: 12/11/2001
Posts: 7738
Loc: Toronto, CANADA
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None of the current DVR players "get it" - you can rest assured (and I'd put a few dollars on this) if Apple were to introduce a consumer-based DVR (not software to run on a Mac, but a real consumer device), it would very quickly blow away TiVo's market share. It would likely steadily surpass all other DVR products in share as well, depending on how it was packaged and what TV systems it was compatible with. And it wouldn't be because the hardware was that much better. Nor the UI for that matter. But Apple would definitely market it better. Not as simple to do as with an MP3 player (again, think TV system landscape), but if anyone could pull it off, it would have to be Apple.
Bruno
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#277076 - 10/03/2006 14:53
Re: Who thinks TiVo is barking up the wrong tree?
[Re: hybrid8]
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carpal tunnel
Registered: 30/04/2000
Posts: 3810
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Maybe Apple could do it, but I think the fundamental economics need to change a bit first. Right now, now matter how you slice it, the manufacturing cost of a TiVo is too high. If you can profitably sell a TiVo for under $100, with lifetime service included (*), then you've got stampeding customers at the local Wal-Mart.
To get a TiVo box selling in Wal-Mart for $100, the component cost is going to have to drop in a significant way. Amusing thought: it might be cheaper to build an ATSC box than a traditional NTSC box, because you don't need an MPEG encoder. You only need the decoder. Think of this as the "TiVo HD Adapter", with optional hard drive, to help consumers when they turn off the analog NTSC broadcasts.
(*) Or maybe with "TiVo basic" included, then you can pay marginally more for other features.
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#277077 - 10/03/2006 14:59
Re: Who thinks TiVo is barking up the wrong tree?
[Re: DWallach]
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carpal tunnel
Registered: 12/11/2001
Posts: 7738
Loc: Toronto, CANADA
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When an iPod is selling for $400 I don't think they have to hit $100. That price is well below the impulse purchase price point. I think that sits at about $200. The amount up to which someone will impulse purchase without consulting a spouse, on average.
I think $399 is realistic.
Bruno
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#277078 - 10/03/2006 15:24
Re: Who thinks TiVo is barking up the wrong tree?
[Re: hybrid8]
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carpal tunnel
Registered: 30/04/2000
Posts: 3810
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Well, the Wal-Mart DVD-player stampedes happened when they broke under $50. In terms of the impulse-buy point, your $400 suggestion is roughly where they're pricing the Xbox 360, so some marketing people must agree with you. Of course, TiVo will never be gotta-have-it "hot" in the way the Xbox is.
An interesting question is just exactly how much a low-end TiVo would cost. Today, $150 gets you a Playstation 2. The low-end Humax TiVo / DVD box seems to be selling for as low as $240. Sony probably isn't making much, if anything on those PS2's (hoping for revenue on the games), but it's probably feasible to sell a $200 basic TiVo, if not now, then really soon.
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#277079 - 10/03/2006 15:41
Re: Who thinks TiVo is barking up the wrong tree?
[Re: DWallach]
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carpal tunnel
Registered: 12/11/2001
Posts: 7738
Loc: Toronto, CANADA
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One of the near-fixed costs in a product like a TiVo is the hard drive. Very hard to get that down too much. Unless you're buying Dell volumes you're going to pay a pretty concrete price. Someone I know is going to be releasing an HD-based product within the next couple of months and they had to shop hard for drives.
Bruno
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#277080 - 10/03/2006 20:15
Re: Who thinks TiVo is barking up the wrong tree?
[Re: DWallach]
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pooh-bah
Registered: 12/02/2002
Posts: 2298
Loc: Berkeley, California
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Quote:
Of course, TiVo will never be gotta-have-it "hot" in the way the Xbox is.
I'm not a gamer, but I can't imagine anyone valueing an xbox over a ReplayTV or tivo. If my replay died tomorrow, I'd be buying on ebay. It's a quality of life issue.
On Topic: If I was buying one tomorrow, I'd be buying one with a lifetime subscription. I can't stand recurring payments on anything, and the lifetime subscription is worth pretty much what you paid for it if you sell the unit.
Matthew
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#277081 - 10/03/2006 23:04
Re: Who thinks TiVo is barking up the wrong tree?
[Re: hybrid8]
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carpal tunnel
Registered: 05/01/2001
Posts: 4903
Loc: Detroit, MI USA
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All of this would be a moot (sp?) point if Tivo just offered this as another option and left the old options in place.
It would also help if they did this at the same time as the cable-card, dual tuner, HD units came out.
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Brad B.
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#277082 - 11/03/2006 01:04
Re: Who thinks TiVo is barking up the wrong tree?
[Re: SE_Sport_Driver]
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carpal tunnel
Registered: 12/11/2001
Posts: 7738
Loc: Toronto, CANADA
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TiVo claims that the lifetime sub option is too much of a good deal for consumers. Meaning it's not a good long-term profit sttrategy for them. The move they're making now follows the cell phone market. Too bad a TiVo (a DVR in general) is not a cell phone and moving the industry in that direction is just a disservice to the consumer.
Bruno
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#277083 - 11/03/2006 01:31
Re: Who thinks TiVo is barking up the wrong tree?
[Re: hybrid8]
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carpal tunnel
Registered: 23/09/2000
Posts: 3608
Loc: Minnetonka, MN
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Quote:
The move they're making now follows the cell phone market.
Exactly and I won't get a cell phone until they change.
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Matt
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#277084 - 11/03/2006 09:38
Re: Who thinks TiVo is barking up the wrong tree?
[Re: DWallach]
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addict
Registered: 10/11/2000
Posts: 497
Loc: Utah, USA
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Quote:
...Amusing thought: it might be cheaper to build an ATSC box than a traditional NTSC box, because you don't need an MPEG encoder. You only need the decoder. Think of this as the "TiVo HD Adapter", with optional hard drive, to help consumers when they turn off the analog NTSC broadcasts...
And when you pitch it that way, it could actually qualify for some of those gubmint subsidies for converter boxes.
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-Aaron
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#277085 - 12/03/2006 03:11
Re: Who thinks TiVo is barking up the wrong tree?
[Re: matthew_k]
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carpal tunnel
Registered: 17/12/2000
Posts: 2665
Loc: Manteca, California
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Quote:
On Topic: If I was buying one tomorrow, I'd be buying one with a lifetime subscription. I can't stand recurring payments on anything, and the lifetime subscription is worth pretty much what you paid for it if you sell the unit.
Matthew
Lifetime was always a loosing proposition. Kind of like selling a razor that never gets dull. You can only sell so many of those before everyone who needs, has.
The trick is being able to deliver the subscription service cheaply enough. This is possibly where a p2p trick could help.
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