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So what is a reasonable expectation for a sr. software developer with a strong performance review?

If your manager understands how to build and maintain strong, committed teams of developers, and if the overall compensation scheme (which of course your manager is probably as much a victim of as you are) allows for it, then lots -- especially if you've just started a new job and surprised them by how good you are at it.

Elsewhere, i.e. in the real world, however, the company will pay you the smallest amount they think won't cause an on-the-spot resignation: no other strategy is cost-optimal for them in the short term. Don't blame your own manager for this: his or her hands are likely to be tied unless your company is so small that your own manager was the one who came up with the compensation scheme in the first place.

Peter