4) The EU is on the virge of establishing itself as a new superpower, and no longer feels the need to follow the US's lead.

I can't really see how they could achieve that without the UK. Aside from the UK, only France really has any viable independant defence capabilities. Most European states generally only maintain a token defence force, and do not have nuclear deterrents. Without the UK, other European states would have to increase their defence spending significantly. To put this into perspective;

In reply to:

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2001 Defence spending. (US $billion, at constant 1998 exchange rates and prices...whatever that means).

(US 281.4)
France 40
UK 37
Germany 32.4
Italy 24.7
Spain 8

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(Source

No one else in Europe spends anything on defence that is worth discussing.

It's my observation that the UK enjoys sitting in the political void left between the generally socialist Euro states and the capitalist US.

It's hard to conceive of Europe being a superpower when one of the biggest proponents of Europe acts like a selfish brat all the time. I've lost count of the times over the years when I've been in a pub with friends discussing whatever it was that the French had just done (blockading ports, refusing to relocate an asylum center that was being used as a halfway house to the UK, claiming a monopoly on wine, cheese, whatever). And I've lost count of the times that the general conclusion was 'Fuck the French"

I don't think that with Dubya in the 'hood that diplomacy stood much of a chance of achieving a peaceful solution in Iraq. But the French closed the door on any effective second UN resolution.

Here's an interesting article that I found tonight.