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All he's really doing is over-simplifying and making judgement calls when most responsible statisticians concede that no real judgement can be made.

There's almost no data on the site that is backed by only a single poll, though. Especially now. And he talks about how he breaks ties by averaging several recent polls together. While I completely agree with you that it's far less of a science when you get to the higher level summaries, there is a reasonable amount of science that he is using to get to that point, so it's not completely false. Ultimately, though, I admit that I look at the site as infotainment and not a math journal. He does a lot of grunt work to pull together a lot of data and writes some interesting articles that I enjoy. It's also one of the few sites that I have found that looks at the analysis in terms of electoral votes (I hate the "so-and-so is at 49% nationwide" polls -- that's not how our election system works, so what does it really matter?). The funny/sad thing to wonder about is whether the ACTUAL election process is any more accurate than what he's doing

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Tangentially, the electoral college blows.