Huh.
It was a dying AC power supply. Couldn't keep the drives spun up, just as described in the FAQ. Changed to a different PSU and it started right up. This still doesn't explain the intermittent Disk Not Found errors, which have also been happening on DC. It also doesn't explain the occasionally gibberish in the serial log. BUT, I've got a player to use now until the thing fails for good.
I want the light kit and I want to have the capacitor installed for the screen brightness, so maybe I'll send it to Eutronix and have them inspect the IDE header while they install the other stuff.
Thanks again, everyone.
Jim