Well, the Wal-Mart DVD-player stampedes happened when they broke under $50. In terms of the impulse-buy point, your $400 suggestion is roughly where they're pricing the Xbox 360, so some marketing people must agree with you. Of course, TiVo will never be gotta-have-it "hot" in the way the Xbox is.

An interesting question is just exactly how much a low-end TiVo would cost. Today, $150 gets you a Playstation 2. The low-end Humax TiVo / DVD box seems to be selling for as low as $240. Sony probably isn't making much, if anything on those PS2's (hoping for revenue on the games), but it's probably feasible to sell a $200 basic TiVo, if not now, then really soon.