wow, I'm glad this thread is continuing! It took a few days but I finally got my replacement serial cable. And my "cat /dev/ttyS0" stuff did work. All it did was print out some garbage which was enough to tell me that it's active.
I couldn't get it to work via virtualbox so I grabbed the upgclient and yeah, that doesn't work either:
$ ./upgclient Windows_Share/builder_bigdisk_v4.upgrade
empeg-car Upgrade client.
empegupgrade: Using upgrade file 'Windows_Share/builder_bigdisk_v4.upgrade' to device '/dev/ttyS0' (115200 baud)
Checking upgrade file integrity [100%]
Pumping player software
Finding unit [ 2%]
Upgrading flash (bootloader)
Erasing flash [ 0%]
ERROR: 8 Flash erase failed
Upgrade aborted due to errors [ 0%]
Upgrade failed :-(
Upgrade failed with error 0x80040057
Any ideas?