I don't think Apple will release a tablet that's anything like any product that's been shown at CES. It wouldn't make any sense. That type of product is destined for failure and I'm sure everyone at Apple in a position to influence the product knows this.

So part of the reason I excluded them is because I'm confident their product will be something that is completely unlike what's been seen before. Only because people expect it to be a tablet did I even have to include that exception in my post, because personally, I have no idea what it is. They may not release a tablet at all.

And, an exclusion is not a pass - I'm not making predictions on how well I think Apple will do. I'm simply excluding them from my failure prediction for everything else. Because if they do take off and become a huge success, I don't want someone saying _ aha Bruno, you said tablets were gong to fail! and Apple proved you wrong."

Any failures of Apple TV are firmly within Apple's control. Had thi sproduct not been relegated to "hobby" status I'm sure it would be a flying success. It's not terribly difficult to make it into such a success, especially this year. But they're hell bent on trying to shape it into something people don't actually want nor need yet - a content-buying box. This is too niche and the product is too low-spec to matter much. I'm sure they're not losing money on it though.