David Moss at empeg replied to me and also said it was definitely the HD. Either DOA or loose connection. He obviously told me to contact the eStore in the US for a replacement.
If it's a loose connection and can be easily reseated, I'd really like to do it here. I'm fairly comfortable with this type of thing and I've also got plenty of people to choose from for help if I don't want to touch it (hardware engineers and techs (both asic and board) all around me here at work).
I've read the FAQ, so I'll take a quick peek and call the store if everything looks OK.