In this thread, we can discuss:
the cost of the buttons
the costs of the projects
how we can fund this effort
how we can sell the buttons on a website
how we can distribute the buttons
etc

First, though, I'm worried about one thing: Profit. If one person works on this project and they decide that they want to make a profit, then they keep what they make. But if multiple people work on the project and they all decide that they want a profit, who gets that profit?

So, to start right off, it seems easiest if we avoid making a profit; making enough to cover costs and passing the other savings on to the community when they buy buttons.

But, there is a cost on the time that people put into this project! I wonder; if we could get enough help, maybe we could spread the time load around so it is a minimal burden on each person. Regardless, I ask, if you are willing to work on this project, could the cost of your time on this project be a donation to the community? We would all appreciate it (and we'd all appreciate a set of buttons!).

Thanks folks!

My initial idea for production is to do one big run. Hopefully, that will meet any requirements the caster may have for minimum production sizes. Also, it seems hard enough to get one run done, let alone one now and another one later. And I don't mind having my money tied up in maintaining a stock of buttons. If they never sell, then oh well, my fault.

To determine the size of the run, I'm counting on past and present feedback and interest (in the thread over in General).

Another factor I'd like to account for is future demand. How much longer will the empeg remain the best car mp3 solution and maintain its critical mass of users? How many empeg users will buy new cars and need different color buttons? How much longer will empegs be sold to new users who may want buttons? How much longer will the illumination kits be available with and without install services?

My initial guess to all of this is "1 to 2 years". But the "how many" stuff will come from everyone expressing interest.

Any other ideas on these lifespan guesses?

Once we know which colours we need made (which should be in one of the other threads I guess, but as a starting point let say R/G/B/Smoke), I'd suggest that (only) selling complete sets containing all of them might make a lot of sense;

1). We wouldn't have to fuss around with individual quantity estimation or minimum quantities for the less popular colours. Once we know how many sets we're likely to need we just order that many in each colour.

2), Many people might want multiple colours anyway - who knows what cars we might be driving next year?

3). Caster is more likely to come through on the order. An order for 200 sets of four colours is going to be more attractive than an order for 75 blue, 50 red, 30 green and 45 smoke. And more likely to be produced correctly.

4). We automatically oversupply the market, and in doing so add some insurance for those people who miss the boat. People will have spare colours laying around and in a couple of years time when someone urgently needs a sset of smoke buttons they will be more likely to find someone willing to sell them some.

5) From what's been posted before, the startup fixed costs are far more significant than the per-button costs. Getting 200 sets of 4 colours made is not going to cost much more than getting 50 of each colour to sell individually. A complete set for $30 is going be more attractive to us than a single set for $25.

Ideal run size has been discussed at 150-300 sets of buttons where one set has 4 buttons and 2 knobs (Mk2 and Mk2a). IMHO, the most significant data point was Stu's confirmation that the number was in range of light kits sold to date.

As far as forecasting future demand, I'd peg it at 300 sets. I don't think you're going to be able to get a solid forecast on continued Empeg uptake. If the buttons sellout, then I'd gauge whether a second run is warranted.

I'd second genixia's idea of bundling all colors together for an order for simplicity's sake.

I'd second genixia's idea of bundling all colors together for an order for simplicity's sake.

Thats an excellent idea. I for one don't particularly feel the need for translucent buttons so I wouldn't be in a rush to order a single set. Particularly since I don't know what I would want them for and therefor what color to get. However, a full set of all produced colors for 150% or less of the cost of a single color would be a must have just in case I ever wanted them. This is the same motivation that finally convinced me to buy a set of Darkstorm's lenses near the end when he was selling three colors for the price of one (or something like that).

-Mike

genixia, those are some really great ideas about selling only complete sets. Some thoughts about that:

(These examples assume five colors, R/G/B/Y/Smoke, because there seems to be a market for yellow.)

A) Someone only wants two sets of smoke. Assuming a five color set, that guy gets his two sets, but also eight extra sets. Your #2 and #4 justify the buyer's situation very well, but in the short run, that guy paid for eight sets and is only using two. He may not want to pay the extra, and we lost a sale.

B) If we sell a complete set of five colors, then we could sell single sets at one fifth of the complete set price. People may feel bad that they are required to pay for stuff they won't use.

But, here are some positives to selling in complete sets:
C) People could go in on a purchase together. "Hey, you buy the set and I'll buy your red and yellow." Though that might be more hassle then some want to deal with.

D) Like C, let the users "break the bulk" (as they say in product dustribution). They can charge whatever they want for their unneeded sets. And once we are out of stock, they can post-fire-sale markup their unneeded sets.

So, here's a compromise. As an eternal rule in product sales, bulk is cheaper than individual. Sell both complete sets and individual sets, with individual units priced a little above their per unit cost, and complete sets reflecting a savings because they are in bulk. So, the guy who wants two sets of smoke pays $45 total ($22/set) and the guy who wants a complete set pays $90 total ($18/set).

I just worry that Smoke and Red will sell alot (easily double that of any other single color?). So, if we sell individuals and sets, individual Smoke and Red sales will drain the supply, and that drain won't be counteracted by individual sales of Green, Yellow, and Blue. Complete set sales will drain each color equally, so no worry there, unless Smoke and Red sell out, leaving complete sets impossible (unless a TriColorSet is created at that point). So I think we really may have to order more Smoke and Red no matter what.

Ultimately, it may be determined by price. The manufacturer's per unit cost may be so cheap that we can afford to sell complete sets at a low price. But the setup cost may be so high that we really need to recover that, making complete sets cost prohibitive for the guy who wants just two sets of smoke, thus loosing his business. Once we get on the phone with manufacturers and start looking at setup vs. per unit cost, this will all iron itself out.

Mach,
> the most significant data point was Stu's confirmation that the number was in
> range of light kits sold to date.

So, Stu said that between 150 and 300 sets have been sold so far? Over the past 3 years (or however long it's been since Brian started them; 2001 I thought)?

So, you think between 150 and 300 sets of each color (per genixia's idea) or 150 to 300 sets total, between all colors?

If we compromise and sell complete sets for less per unit and individual sets for more per unit, we may be able get more sales, thus maybe allowing up to 100 sets of each color to be produced (with more Red and Smoke produced).

Rationale: If people would buy 300 individual sets, that includes single buyers purchasing multiple sets. Say, 150 people bought individual, but 50 people bought three. If we produce 500 sets (100 of each color), those 50 people will take up 250 sets and the other 250 can go to the remaining 150 buyers. That will probably not leave enough for the future though. And, again, seems like Smoke and Red will sell more.

mlord had suggested that 150-200 sets was a reasonable estimate and Stu replied with this:

Agreed. Given the sales of the electronic portion fo the lighting kits, combined with the fact that many would probably buy more than one set, I think that number is quite reasonable.

This was for a single set of buttons (4 buttons & 2 knobs) and the price discussed at the time was in the neighborhood of $20/set.

There was some additional discussion afterwards that pegged the number as high as 300 sets but that I believe was the upper limit of speculation.

In the same thread as above, casting fool stated that the project would take $1000-2000 to setup. Add 50% contingency on that number in light of the fact that he was unsuccessful so that's $1500-3000 for setup.

Per unit costs? I'll throw these out. Resin is about $150 for a gallon can. I'm guessing that'll be good for 200-250 sets if the caster is efficient but if they have a minimum batch run it could require more resin. I don't think it would be 5x but could be 2x. So it's $300 for resin and additional $100 for coloring. That's $400/200 = $2/set for materials. So, materials won't drive the unit price but labor likely will.

Stu maybe able to comment on how big the mold was that the caster made. Assuming 5 sets per casting and 3-4 hours per casting, caster rates $20-30 (guessing)/hr. High side: 120/5 = $24/set or low side 60/5 = $12 set.

Unit cost $14-$26/set

Assuming a break even point at the low side of 150 sets with low side costs, the best case scenario on price would be $24/set. The worst case scenario at high side costs and low side 150 sets means that $46/set.

The idea of volume production to reduce costs only works if the caster can scale his operation up with increasing volume.

The reason I think it's a good idea to bundle the sets is to spread around the risk so that one person doesn't get stuck with the cost of 70 sets of Amber and Green.

Admittedly, the above is based on quite a few assumptions. If anyone has a different opinion, please have at it. The spreadsheets attached and I'm tired so YMMV.

So, here's a compromise. As an eternal rule in product sales, bulk is cheaper than individual. Sell both complete sets and individual sets, with individual units priced a little above their per unit cost, and complete sets reflecting a savings because they are in bulk. So, the guy who wants two sets of smoke pays $45 total ($22/set) and the guy who wants a complete set pays $90 total ($18/set).

And who is going to eat the loss on all the incomplete sets that have had their smoke and red sold individually? Once you start selling individual colours you _have_ to try and order as close to exactly the quantities as are actually needed, or price the individual colours well above the unit pricing in order to cover not selling the unpopular colours.

You've questioned how this could all work financially. Basically there are two options;

Firstly, someone fronts all the money and takes all the risk. It is only right and fair that they get to decide how to mitigate that risk and maximise the chances of getting that money back. If those decisions result in a profit then that is also fair. I'd expect to see pricing in the $40/colour range.

The second option (that you have indicated is your preference) is that this is done in a more collective manner - we all pool some cash to get this done and no one makes a profit. In this case, who takes the responsibility (and expends the effort) for handling and tracking sales? Who eats the loss on deadbeat buyers? I'd suggest that making the whole process as simple as possible would be a Good Thing(tm) for that person. Shift as many complete colour sets as quickly and simply as possible at a price that is maybe 10% over cost. Minimise that risk quickly. The last thing that you'd want is to be holding 50 sets of green that nobody wanted.

Before we get carried away, we really should remember that two people here have already taken risks and put their money on the line for buttons. Stu is out of pocket for a mould and Paul is currently down a player. I'd like to see both of those situations resolved before (or as part of) a community approach to getting buttons made. Let's not leave them in the lurch.

Actually, there is hope for that player...

As part of the continued investigation into buttons, I was able to get it (or at least a tracking number for it) from CastingFool. If all goes well, the player should be returning home tomorrow.

Meanwhile, CastingFool is still interested in doing casting for us, but I am not sure if he has or can get access to the resources given his financial crunch. But the possibility remains. He is also friends with the caster Stu was working with, so he was going to check with the other guy to find out what problems he ran into.

_hardcore_ also was going to investigate some possibilities.

I also wrote to Brian, the original artist, to see if he would be interested in going back into the business. I also asked if he was not interested, if he could share the color matching experience and color formulae he used for his previous castings so they can be reused rather than reinvented through trial and error.

No word back on any of these yet.

Wow, I didn't realize that he still had Paul's player. It sounds as though Paul might get the player back soon; if not, we can have someone in CF's area go pick it up(?).

Regarding Stu's sunk costs, similar to what was done for the lenses, prices should be set high enough to cover initial investment plus enough to fund another run if demand is high enough. I would see a few people or one person fronting the money for this. Once their initial investment breaks even from sales, the person(s) get paid out.

At that time, Stu has right of first refusal, to distributing buttons. We turn over the essential bits to whoever takes it on to run with from there with the idea that if demand warrants it, then a second run may be organized.

This assumes that this plays out as a not for profit venture for one or more folks. If Brian or _hardcore_ shows up, we'll need to rethink this.

I'm not at all worried about Brian. He had long enough to sell buttons to any and all who wanted them and chose to stop doing so.

Greetings!

The Traveller (deliberately misspelled, thanks...) has returned!!! Now I just have to sync it up with the other players. It is almost like a musical time capsule - Hijack 334!!!

Wow!! I'm so happy you got it back finally, Paul!

Cheers

As am I! I had written it off as lost a while back (when he had problems and the site went down for a few months), but I am glad everything is as it should be. And there may be hope of some castings, too. Investigating... Far too early to commit, though.

Great news.

The prodigal has returned. Glad to hear it Paul.

Given the experiences to date, a written contract for this project would be a Good Idea(TM). Does anyone have an example that could be modified for this? I have examples for software projects but would like to have something more applicable.