Quote:
I think it is going to be Blu-Ray, all because of one device - the Playstation 3.

When the PS2 came out, it was most peoples first DVD player. In fact, many people bought them as DVD players with a little bit of gaming on the side. The price gap between a standard DVD player and a PS2 was not much back then.


There are a few differences this time around that I see. First off, the PS2 was released a good 3 years after DVDs first appeared on the street. So people knew ahead of time what a DVD was, why it was good, and why they wanted a player for them. So the selling line of "it's a DVD player and a game console" worked a little better. Blu-Ray isn't even out yet, and HD-DVD just came out. It's going to take at least 3 years for either to even hit close to mainstream.

And second, the HD part. Sore a lot of new buyers are looking at HD this and that to go with their new HDTVs, but HDTV sets haven't been common all that long either. They sat at the fringe part of the market for a long time, and only in the past 2 or so years did they become common enough to replace most 40 inch and up sets. Considering the lifespan of TVs for most people is at least 10 years, if not closer to 15, thats a long time to wait to drum up interest in HD movies. DVD was a big step ahead of VHS even if someone only had a normal small TV. The same can't be said for the new formats.

To me, the sign that either format has hit proper saturation is when we see movies released on DVD and whatever HD format at the same time, and rental stores start carying them on a frequent basis. Until then, the disc will just be a small market item, much like the UMD movies.