Nope, it'll be sooner than you think - really it takes a killer product to make it happen. The same way the original iPhone was a killer product which got every smartphone manufacturer to wake up, it will take a killer LED product to bring LED lighting to the mainstream.

For me, the killer LED product is nearly here. There are a bunch of rebranded EPISTAR Chip based GU10 LED Lamps flooding the market - these are fairly cheap (£12 retail) and in my opinion are excellent. 4W is the ideal lamp, the higher wattages cost more and give very little more light output. They are long lasting and give around the same amount of light as a 35W GU10 Halogen in a variety of different colour temperatures. They are even exactly the same size as a Halogen GU10 lamp. The reflector is not bad, the beam is pretty even with no bright spots, they are excellent value for money.

Another great lamp is the Toshiba E-Core 8.5W GU10 LED. 40,000hr rated, nice comfortable 3000K warm white colour, temperature controlled (overheat protection), and the killer feature: smooth, silent dimming with a good quality trailing edge dimmer. They are relatively new, and I've already done a few projects with these (sold about 300 in the past couple of months) - a really excellent lamp, paired with the correct dimmer I have some very happy customers. I'd say it was good value at £21 retail for a lamp that is easily 50W Halogen equivalent. It is the same cost as 14 Halogen lamps, but it lasts as long as 14 Halogen lamps. The peace of mind of not changing them 14 times, and also the 83% energy saving on top makes them an easy sell.