In the short-term (2 years) I don't think MS can even begin to touch RIM's numbers. If we're talking 5+ years, then maybe. but RIM would have to make some serious mistakes.

Microsoft's only positive position in mobile was when mobile barely existed as a computing space. Big fish small pond type of analogy. Now that mobile has exploded, their past numbers are a joke and their current numbers don't even have a punch line.

It looks like MS has more friends at the top at Nokia as of today's most recent VP appointment. Some people seem to think that this is a Microsoft coup: http://www.appleoutsider.com/2011/02/11/nokia/

Maybe we'll see them end their licensing with the other handset producers. I feel really strongly it's the only way they can possibly solidify their product offering and make a real go of being relevant.

MS is missing out on the new generation's primary platforms. They've been completely shut out of the tablet game as well for now. In 10 years, I can honestly see MS in a strictly applications-based space if they don't start firing on all cylinders again.