Do you think 200,000 people would have died as the result of an invasion?

Yes. Some claim that as many as 3.5million Japanese (soldiers and civilians) and 500,000 US soldiers would have died in an attempt to take the Japanese home islands.

Some sources:

http://tigger.uic.edu/~rjensen/invade.htm
http://hnn.us/articles/181.html
http://www.emory.edu/EMORY_REPORT/erarchive/1995/September/ERsept.18/9_18_95nuclear.bomb.html

Admittedly, some of these sites are attempting to justify dropping nukes on Japan. 200,000 seems low (to me) for any WW2-era invasion, Japan or otherwise.

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-- roger