My current perspective is that the layers of driver assist and automation that existed prior to the current 'auto-pilot' level could allow the driver to become distracted or reduce attentiveness, but the current and near future self-driving capabilities are exponentially more so.

For me these levels do not fade into each other on a smooth continum. The current capabilities of the Telsa car (not the company's characterization or descriptions of their products, more the ways people are actually using them) is a step change in how people are perceiving this stuff.

Even the most advanced cruise control and lane departure warning equipped car would run off the road in mere minutes or even seconds of sustained driver inattention. Falling asleep was often fatal.

I understand that Telsa, the company, makes great efforts to dissuade people from over-relying on the technology. But Telsa, the actual car, seduces (some, perhaps many) people into trusting the apparently impressive capabilities beyond what is actually 'safe'.

Self-driving cannot be a 'solved problem' if the necessary sensors and compute power are not yet available. It may become evident at some future moment that the current Tesla technology approach is inherently limited and that even stupendous improvements in sensors and compute will not sufficiently bridge the residual risk gap to allow regulatory change and trustworthy self-driven activity, especially in mixed traffic environments with human drivers in other non-advanced vehicles.

When Tesla defines a capability as 'Beta' that to me means they are indeed utilizing the human as a fail-safe wrapper for the technology. The person must be there to take over when the tech fails. The safety and regulatory threshold for removing the Beta asterisk from self-driving appears to be very, very high. It is not a given that more intensively pursing the current path will lead to the desired outcome.

This Critique of NHTSA and SAE "Levels" of self-driving may be of interest.

I note that the fatality that initiated that thread occurred under conditions the author rates as hard and very hard.

My view of Elon is that he is personally very comfortable with high degrees of risk. He is willing to bet the company and all stakeholders that this Tesla experiment can be successful.


Edited by K447 (04/07/2016 22:06)