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what makes your particular religion more, for lack of a better word, probable (or true) than others?
Because it IS true, whether I can prove it to others or not. My life experience, my reading of the Bible, and my examination of the claims of other faiths all tell me the Christianity is true. Of every teaching I've encountered, the notion that man is fallen and need of redemption rings truer to me than any other philosophy, and as I've walked in Christ's footsteps this has been confirmed over and over.

If you're after scientific proof (or any other kind, for that matter), I can't offer any. But just because I can't prove it doesn't mean it isn't true.

Have you heard the expression "calling a tail a leg doesn't make it so?"

Just because you think it's true, doesn't make it true. It may be true, but then, it may not be.

Every time I've been to Florida, it was raining. Therefore, based on my experience, it is true that it is constantly raining in Florida.