If the current rumors are true it sounds like it will be tied to iTunes in every way, even more than the current model.

Also, I prefer the way you said "can't/won't do much more than a $200 dedicated box will in that role." That's the key. I don't want to make it sound like I'm hating on the Mac Mini, because I really dig the new revision. I think it's a great box and would definitely be the Mac I'd get. The price is decent for a computer, and they've changed a lot of things I didn't like about it before, like easily upgraded RAM slots.