laws can state that "if X then Y" but they cant produce X out of thin air. so if your not saying that X was produced by "chance" then where did it come from?

So you're saying that us pronouncing the laws of the universe does not make the universe. True (although that's not what we're saying). At the same time, you're claiming that God exists solely because you (or others) have proclaimed that he exists. So you're attacking us based on a point we're not making while your argument falls to that same attack.

what is that one thing that keeps you from beliving in God?

The utter, abject, and complete lack of any evidence supporting any such being's existence, and the occasional evidence implying (usually via Occam's Razor) that one does not.

To be honest, I have no evidence that a being did not create the universe itself. There may well be some being that did. So I don't not believe in that. (In fact, I'd probably believe that that being would not ``exist'' in the realm of space-time as we intuitively, and, perhaps, intellectually, understand it.) I specifically do not believe that there is any being that modifies the rules mid-game in order to interact with us. He may have set the rules in the beginning so that what happens is what he wanted to happen, but that's not really a useful supposition -- interesting, perhaps.

As Steven Hawking says, if we were to find a unified theory of the universe, we would ``know the mind of God''.